By Ding Long

丁隆

It's been a year since the new round of Palestine-Israel conflict broke out last October 7th, which is rare in terms of its long duration, massive casualties, and broad involvement. The war has caused a serious humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip with spreading spillover effects. One year on, instead of seeing the advent of peace in Gaza, we have witnessed Iran and Israel, two major Middle Eastern states, come to the point of conflict too, pushing the region once again to a dangerous state where it may fall into an all-out war with multiple outbursts and frontlines. As we look back on the tragic and dramatic developments in the Middle East in the past year, the urgency of putting an end to the current conflict cannot be clearer.

10月7日是新一輪巴以沖突爆發(fā)一周年的日子。延宕至今，這已成為巴以之間持續(xù)時(shí)間、傷亡人數(shù)、波及范圍都極其罕見的一場沖突。戰(zhàn)火在加沙地帶造成嚴(yán)重人道危機(jī)，沖突外溢效應(yīng)持續(xù)蔓延。一周年之際，世界沒有看到和平降臨加沙，兩個(gè)中東大國伊朗與以色列的沖突卻呈一觸即發(fā)之勢，中東再次面臨多點(diǎn)爆發(fā)、多線輪動(dòng)并向全面戰(zhàn)爭墜落的危險(xiǎn)態(tài)勢。在此時(shí)間關(guān)口，回望一年來中東沖突悲劇式、戲劇性的復(fù)雜演繹，無不警示著為本輪沖突畫上句號的緊迫性。

This round of Palestine-Israel conflict is characterized by a grave humanitarian disaster, extensive spillover effects, multiple forms of warfare, and great difficulty in mediation.

本輪巴以沖突具有人道災(zāi)難重、外溢范圍廣、沖突形式多、調(diào)解難度大等特征。

First, the conflict has brought about what's believed to be the most serious humanitarian disaster since the end of WWII. Over the past year, more than 40,000 people of both conflicting parties have died, with another 100,000 injured and almost all Gaza residents displaced, and about 2/3 of the buildings in Gaza have been damaged or razed to the ground. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that building ruins and relics in Gaza amounted to 42 million tons, enough to build 11 Khufu Pyramids, and clearing them would take 14 years and more than US$1.2 billion while rebuilding Gaza would take 80 years.

第一，本輪沖突已釀成二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以來世所罕見的人道災(zāi)難。一年來，巴以雙方4萬余人死亡，10萬人受傷，幾乎所有加沙居民都遭遇流離失所之痛。加沙地帶2/3的建筑遭到損毀或被夷為平地，據(jù)聯(lián)合國開發(fā)計(jì)劃署估算，加沙建筑廢墟多達(dá)4200萬噸，可堆出11個(gè)埃及胡夫金字塔，清理廢墟需要14年，花費(fèi)超過12億美元。加沙重建則需要80年。

Second, the conflict has the most extensive spillover effects in history. After it broke out, the "Axis of Resistance" under Iran's leadership collaborated in Hamas' struggles against Israel. With Palestine and Israel in the center, several frontlines have emerged in turns in the Middle East, continuously intensifying the geopolitical confrontation and pushing the region to the edge of an all-out war. The first head-on conflict between Iran and Israel, two major military powers in the region, has sent them into a cycle of retaliation, adding more risks to the regional situation.

第二，本輪沖突在歷次巴以沖突中外溢范圍最廣。巴以沖突爆發(fā)后，伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的“抵抗軸心”協(xié)同聯(lián)動(dòng)，策應(yīng)哈馬斯抗以斗爭。圍繞巴以沖突這條主線，中東出現(xiàn)多條戰(zhàn)線輪替的局面，中東地緣對抗不斷被推高，地區(qū)瀕臨全面戰(zhàn)爭邊緣。伊以作為中東兩大軍事強(qiáng)國，首次發(fā)生正面沖突，陷入打擊與報(bào)復(fù)的輪回，擴(kuò)大了中東局勢的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口。

Third, "unrestricted warfare" has hit through the ethical bottom line. The extensive employment of "unrestricted warfare" during this round of conflict has refreshed our perception of the form of warfare. Merchant ships in the Red Sea become targets of attacks, international transport security is threatened, and international freight is going through the roof. Tools of civilian communication are weaponized, causing concerns over the security of the global supply chain. "Targeted elimination", attacks on diplomatic agencies, and similar events have taken place frequently. The ethical bottom line in warfare has been constantly lowered, and the seeds of hatred have taken root, further imperiling the Middle East.

第三，超限戰(zhàn)刷新倫理底線。在本輪沖突中，超限戰(zhàn)被廣泛使用，戰(zhàn)爭形式不斷被刷新。紅海商船成為襲擊目標(biāo)，國際運(yùn)輸安全受到威脅，國際運(yùn)費(fèi)飆升。民用通信工具被武器化，引發(fā)對全球供應(yīng)鏈安全的擔(dān)憂。“定點(diǎn)清除”、襲擊外交機(jī)構(gòu)等事件頻繁發(fā)生，戰(zhàn)爭的倫理底線不斷被突破，播下仇恨種子，使中東局勢更加兇險(xiǎn)。

Fourth, international mediation has made little headway. Rounds of international mediation have failed at the last minute because the conflicting parties didn't reach a basic consensus in dialogues and negotiations. This is further compounded by the ambiguity displayed by the US, the chief mediator that, however, has been fanning the flames under the table.

第四，國際斡旋舉步維艱。沖突方在對話和談判中難以達(dá)成基本共識(shí)，導(dǎo)致國際斡旋多次功虧一簣。美國作為主要調(diào)停方對巴以沖突態(tài)度曖昧，甚至表面調(diào)停實(shí)則火上澆油，也使國際斡旋努力不斷受阻。

The current conflict between Palestine and Israel concerns not only the two parties themselves but also generates regional and global consequences that are likely to linger for a long time. The international community has seen more divergences on the issue, causing division within the Western bloc and in individual Western countries.

本輪沖突的影響不僅局限于巴以雙方，還表現(xiàn)在地區(qū)和全球?qū)用妫瑳_突衍生效應(yīng)或?qū)⒊掷m(xù)相當(dāng)長的時(shí)間。國際社會(huì)圍繞巴以沖突的分歧加劇，甚至由此導(dǎo)致了西方陣營內(nèi)部分裂、西方國家社會(huì)撕裂。

Despite its scale, the conflicting parties have nevertheless exercised great restraint to avoid a broader region-wide war. So far, there has been no territorial or boundary change, and Arab countries, which are a majority in the region, haven't been involved either. The conflict is still incomparable to the past five Middle East wars and unlikely to escalate into the sixth either.

雖然本輪沖突規(guī)模巨大，但沖突各方仍保持著相當(dāng)程度的克制，以避免引爆范圍更廣的中東大戰(zhàn)。迄今為止，沖突尚未導(dǎo)致領(lǐng)土和邊界變化，占據(jù)中東主流的阿拉伯國家并未卷入，目前來看也還難以將其與前五次中東戰(zhàn)爭相提并論，未來爆發(fā)“第六次中東戰(zhàn)爭”的可能性較小。

There remains a silver lining in the current situation, and the international community should believe in and magnify the hope of peace. The conflict has brought the Palestine issue back into the international spotlight as a priority, awakened people's conscience, and set off the significant meaning of the "two-state" solution. The call for peace is gaining ground, and China and other countries of the "Global South" are busy mediating for a ceasefire, acting as the mainstay force for peace. China has brought about a historic reconciliation among various factions in Palestine. More Western countries are recognizing Palestine as a sovereign state, and it is enjoying a heightened standing at the UN. All these are adding bricks to the foundation for solving the Palestine issue with the "two-state" plan.

盡管形勢危急，但本輪沖突并非“一團(tuán)漆黑”，國際社會(huì)應(yīng)當(dāng)堅(jiān)信并挖掘其中蘊(yùn)含著的和平希望。沖突使巴勒斯坦問題被重新拉回聚光燈下，成為國際社會(huì)優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)。沖突喚起人類良知，凸顯“兩國方案”的重要意義，國際和平呼聲正在匯聚，中國等“全球南方”國家為?；鹬箲?zhàn)奔走，成為和平力量的中流砥柱。中國促成巴勒斯坦各派實(shí)現(xiàn)歷史性和解、越來越多西方國家承認(rèn)巴勒斯坦國、巴勒斯坦在聯(lián)合國的地位提高等，都在不斷夯實(shí)以“兩國方案”解決巴勒斯坦問題的基礎(chǔ)。

The century-old conflict in the Middle East won't be resolved overnight, but peace for the region is a must-achieve goal no matter how far away it looks now. The Palestine-Israel conflict is the root cause of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, and reaching a ceasefire deal is the top priority at the moment. Once that is realized, it is also important to further augment the peaceful outcomes through a series of measures, such as cementing the reconciliation within Palestine, convening a new regional peace summit, and granting Palestine an official membership at the UN. Only then will the crisis truly be transformed into an opportunity and a new starting point for Middle East's peace process.

中東百年沖突的解決不會(huì)一蹴而就，但中東和平應(yīng)成為雖遠(yuǎn)必至的目標(biāo)。巴以沖突是當(dāng)前中東危局的根源，?；鹬箲?zhàn)仍是當(dāng)務(wù)之急。在未來促成?；鸷?，還需通過鞏固巴勒斯坦內(nèi)部和解、召開新的中東和平會(huì)議、賦予巴勒斯坦聯(lián)合國正式會(huì)員國地位等措施，進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大和平成果，真正化危為機(jī)，讓本輪沖突成為中東和平進(jìn)程的新起點(diǎn)。

(The author is a professor at The Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University)

（作者是上海外國語大學(xué)中東研究所教授）

Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.